ICG: Conflict could re-erupt in East Sudan over failure to implement peace agreement
November 26, 2013 (KHARTOUM) - East Sudan could be the scene of the next conflict as grievances over the perceived lack of implementation of the 2006 peace agreement are widespread, a think-tank group warned.
In a report released today, the International Crisis Group (ICG) said that the root causes of the conflict are still in existence "and in some respects are more acute".
ICG blamed the situation over the non-implemented provisions of the East Sudan Peace Agreement (ESPA) and what it said was the divide and conquer tactics carried out by the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) in Khartoum.
"The failure to implement the ESPA, together with NCP machinations, has hopelessly divided – mostly along tribal lines – the Eastern Front (EF), the alliance of armed groups that signed the agreement" ICG said.
"To maintain dominance, the NCP has bought off tribal leaders, pursued divide-and rule tactics and established tribal militias. In recent years, it has increased support to Arab tribes, including giving them land. Under government protection, Rashayda have settled in Beja territory, especially in predominantly Beni Amer localities such as Khasm al-Gerbah (Kassala state), and Tokar, al-Ganab and al-Awlaib (Red Sea state). In early 2012, the Beni Amer came close to clashes with Rashayda who had begun artisanal gold mining in South Tokar. The intervention of elders from both tribes calmed the situation, but tensions remain and could easily escalate if security deteriorates in the region," the report outlined.
ICG said that tribal leaders are seeing this as a deliberate attempt by the NCP to Arabize the east similar to the methods used in Darfur in the years leading up to the conflict.
It also cautioned that secessionist tendencies are on the rise in Sudan’s eastern region even within the NCP base there because of the view that the centre is exploiting all their resources but sharing very little.
ICG quoted an eastern Sudanese leader as saying that he believes "in unity not separation, yet I am unable to convince the people that separation is not good for them, simply because they are fed up with Khartoum”.
"In September 2012, some activists for separation distributed a statement in Port Sudan, announcing establishment of the ‘Democratic Revolutionary Front for Eastern Sudan’s Liberation’. They called for separation from Khartoum and creation of the ‘Democratic Republic of Eastern Sudan’".
ICG noted that several eastern factions are now calling for toppling the NCP-led regime and joining the rebel coalition group known as the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) which is fighting Khartoum in Darfur, Blue Nile and South Kordofan.
Last February, EF members issued a statement giving the central government one month to follow through on their commitments particularly the financial portion.
Under the October 2006 peace agreement, the EF joined with the government and a $600 million ERDF was established to help the region recover from war.
A further $3.5 billion pledged at a donor conference that took place in Kuwait in December 2010 was also supposed to be added to the East Reconstruction and Development Fund (ERDF).
But the EF said the money is managed inappropriately without transparency and that that the people of the East were excluded from the top posts at ERDF or were given positions without a mandate.
Eastern Sudan has the country’s highest poverty rate, the highest level of child deaths under five years old, and the most children between the ages of six and 13 out of school, says the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
The three states of Red Sea, Kassala and Gedaref in the East have potential gold, oil and gas resources, but poverty remains endemic among the region’s five million inhabitants, whose livelihoods have been undermined by war, climate change and environmental degradation.
ICG noted that they had objections from the start on the ESPA on the ground that it was a continuation of the piecemeal approach in tackling Sudan’s crises.
"The ESPA was clearly a sub-national deal, however, but – pushed by Eritrea – it was “the best deal available” at the time," ICG said.
Major provisions in ESPA were not implemented as promised, the think-tank group said, including allocation of legislative and executive positions to EF in federal and state institutions, ERDF establishment as well as disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) of EF forces.
The ICG underscored the important role played by Eritrea in helping keep the peace agreement intact and its interest in doing so given the fear of conflict in East Sudan spreading to its borders "an area where Eritrean Islamist armed groups have historically operated and which continues to be a top security concern for the government [in Asmara]".
The Eritrean president Isaias Afewerki is currently on a visit to East Sudan to inaugurate the Red Sea’s 7th Festival for Tourism & Shopping.
His Sudanese counterpart took the opportunity to accuse unspecified nations of seeking to undermine the relations between the two countries and stressed that tensions which were prevalent in the 90’s is something of the past.
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